Saturday, January 11, 2020

イラン -- まだまだ終わりではない

Iran -- this is far from over. Ideas that Iran fired those missiles at US forces as a "face saving" gesture are amazingly naive about the Iranian state terrorism.

イラン -- まだまだ終わりではない。(イランが米軍に対してミサイルを撃ち込んだのは「イランの面子を守るため」だ)という考えは,イランという国のテロリズムについて驚くほど無知です。


イランの工作員がタイでテロを起こしました。だが幸運なことに、彼らは酔っぱらっていて一番被害が大きかったのは彼ら自身でした。 私は事件の前夜にイランの工作員達が酔っぱらっているビデオを見ました。彼らは翌朝、早く起きて攻撃を仕掛けたのですが、まだ酔っていたのでしょう。結果から判断すると。

バーで酔っぱらってたむろするペルシャ人やアラブ人たちが ジハードの戦士でない保証はどこにもありません。アルコールを飲んでいるから過激派テロリストではない、と思い込むのは世間知らずです。


Tim Poolのポッドキャストを観ました。Timは良い仕事をしています。シャープな男です。話す前に熟考して、明らかに「真実ーそれがなんであれ」を追求しています。
最近,Timが話していたことは、大規模な戦争は過去の物となりつつあるということでした。そして未来の戦争は,情報戦やコンピュータを使ったサイバー戦争が主となるだろう、と。話のエッセンスを理解した限りでは 兵器を使う戦争は過去の物になりつつあると言っているようです。


Tim Poolはとても頭が切れるし,用心深く,真実を探ろうとしていますが、世の中があっと驚いた今回の事件に関しては少し論点がずれています。



Iran -- this is far from over. Ideas that Iran fired those missiles at US forces as a "face saving" gesture are amazingly naive about the Iranian state terrorism.

Iran is not just a state SPONSOR of terrorism: they actively run terror operations globally.

Actual Iranian operatives made a strike in Thailand. Luckily they were drunken idiots and did more damage to themselves than anything else. I saw some of the video of the Iranian agents getting drunk the night before, and then they woke up early for the attack. Apparently they were still drunk -- if we judge by performance.

Yeah, so don't think just because some drunk Persian or Arab is hanging out in bars that they could never be jihadist. Anybody who believes that has not be studying enough.

This is not over. That was not a "face saving" de-escalation attack. That was a straight up attack and they hit with numerous missiles. Only luck and defensive posture prevented American loss of life.

I've watched some podcasts by Tim Pool. Tim does a good job. Very smart. Clearly in search of "truth" (whatever that is), and thinks before he talks.

Recently, Tim talked along the lines that the big wars are a thing of the past. Future wars will be more along the lines of information warfare, computer, etc. Basically -- as I understood the essence of what Tim was saying -- the kinetics are becoming a thing of the past.

You know, I have written two books (published in Japan) on information war and I am working on another book on same. Information warfare is probably as old as war. Nothing new. It's morphing, of course, but nothing new.

Tim Pool is very sharp, circumspect, and digging for truth, yet a little off on this earth shattering point.

There will be more wars, and some big ones.

Iran will attack again. 10:1 odds.

Where this particular conflict will go is unknown to me. It could deescalate, or explode to the point where air travel around the region is shut down, oil is coating seagulls, and Iranian cities are burning, among others.

Nobody knows. Not the President. Not the Iranians. Nobody knows.

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